![]() ![]() ![]() Note on the graphic: We bent the rules of how cones of uncertainty are built for the purpose of this article. These subtleties are particularly difficult to predict before rapid changes in strength. Hurricane intensity continues to be the biggest struggle in tropical forecasting due to the small-scale features in a hurricane that lead to intensification. The pace at which scientists are improving track forecasts likely won't slow much in the upcoming hurricane seasons due to increasingly better science.Įarly indications are that even intensity forecasts are slightly better than the previous seven years in this decade. (MORE: Hurricane Hunting Underwater Robots Improve Forecasts | New Satellite Launched)Īs noted by Blake, no one computer model has outdone the others, but the overall improvement in computer modeling has helped lead to improvements in both track and intensity modeling. New technology, like high-definition satellites and other distant observing techniques, better computer model guidance, refined hurricane reconnaissance, drone flights and on-the-ground research have led to much better track forecasts in the last quarter-century. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |